Strategic Insights Series
Vijay Jaiswal – EV Economics & Freight Decarbonisation
Automotive R&D & E-mobility Professional with 20+ years of experience. Former EV policy advisor and freight decarbonisation advocate. Mission: make EV adoption work through practical economics, reliable infrastructure, and battery lifecycle management that delivers real-world results.
EV Economics
Policy & TCO
Freight Decarbonisation
Freight Decarbonisation
Infrastructure Strategy
1) The Hook
Why Vijay’s lens is essential now
As India’s EV adoption surges, many consumers and fleets still hesitate. Why? Because EVs promise lower running costs, but buyers worry about replacement battery prices, range limitations, downtime, and unknown resale value. Vijay asks three blunt questions at the start:
- “Does the Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) actually work when you include realistic battery life and charging time?”
- “Do people understand what happens when a battery approaches 80% state-of-health?”
- “Are we planning for grid upgrades where the energy demand will actually come from?”
These questions matter because India needs reliable, affordable freight solutions, not just sleek cars. Road freight contributes about 40% of transport emissions, yet decarbonisation efforts often focus on cars. Vijay argues you can’t skip the economics: if batteries, range and charging times don’t align with driver incomes and fleet TCO, EV adoption stalls.
About Vijay
Automotive R&D & e‑mobility professional with over 20 years of experience. Formerly led EV R&D at OEMs and advised state governments on EV policy (e.g., drafting Telangana’s EV policy). Pioneered freight decarbonisation frameworks with global partnerships. Now on a career sabbatical, he advises startups, investors, and cities on practical EV economics, battery lifecycle management, and policy alignment.
Expertise
- EV economics & TCO modeling
- Freight decarbonisation strategies
- Policy alignment & subsidies
- Battery second life & recycling
- Education & capacity-building for e‑mobility
How Vijay can help
- EV economics for founders: Build business cases with real-world TCO, financing, and battery afterlife costs.
- Freight decarbonisation advisory: Plan closed-loop operations, range & charging strategies for fleets.
- Policy consulting: Draft incentives that align financing, battery management, and grid readiness.
- Education & literacy programs: Train RWAs, fleet managers, and state agencies on battery care & safety.
- Investor diligence: Assess EV startups for financial realism, supply-chain capacity, and local market fit.
Quick facts
Years in EV & R&D
20+
Policy work
Telangana EV policy drafting; freight decarbonisation projects
Key focus
TCO realism; financing; battery life; charging availability
Secondary focus
Domestic supply chain; recycling & reuse pathways
2) The Journey
Why he sees the system differently
Vijay’s career spans 12+ years in automotive R&D and 8 years in e‑mobility development & policy. He has advised state governments (including Telangana’s EV policy), worked with multilaterals on freight decarbonisation, and collaborated with think tanks. The constant across his roles: “Align the technology with the economics at every step.”
In R&D, he learned how vehicles are engineered and how customers perceive value (range, comfort, cost). In policy, he saw how subsidies and regulations shape markets. In freight decarbonisation, he grappled with heavy batteries, limited chargers on highways, and the need for long-range solutions. Today, Vijay is on a career break exploring how to broaden his impact — advising startups, investors and state governments on EV economics and strategy.
3) Brutal truths
What’s broken (beyond charger counts)
3.1 EV TCO models often miss the mark
Many Total Cost of Ownership calculators assume ideal conditions: perfect fast-charging, flat interest rates, and battery replacements after three years. Vijay counters that real buyers pay monthly, not in 5-year spreadsheets; they care about EMIs, downtime, and battery finance. Without modelling replacement cost, downtime and charging time, you get unrealistic projections.
3.2 Passenger EVs don’t always fit Indian use cases
For most middle-class Indians, one car must do both city runs and occasional intercity trips. Today’s EVs (350–500 km claimed range) may not comfortably cover a family’s 500 km highway trip with AC on, and the highway charging network is patchy. Vijay notes that even for daily commuters, the charging infrastructure outside metros is unreliable, especially in tier-2/3 towns.
Another pain: few charging stations offer pay-as-you-go or walk-up service; many require pre-registration with apps, scaring away occasional users. He suggests replicating a telecom-like roaming model, where any EV user can plug in, pay via UPI/card, and go.
3.3 Commercial EV finance is tough
Buses and trucks cost ₹1–2 crore each. NBFCs often price loans at 20–25% APR due to perceived risk. Vijay notes that capital confidence depends on three clear metrics: uptime, utilisation, and hardware robustness. When investors and lenders can see those metrics live, money becomes cheaper.
3.4 Policy and product aren’t aligned
Subsidies often cap incentives based on sticker price (e.g., ₹5–6 lakh for 3-wheelers). Vijay argues for removing price ceilings, covering all e-cargo and buses/trucks if they meet energy efficiency and localisation criteria. He also notes incentives ignore financing timelines; aligning incentives with typical loan tenures (30–36 months) would build healthier ecosystems.
4) Strategic solutions
What to solve and what to avoid
4.1 Solve for EV economics beyond spreadsheet TCO
Implement monthly lens and cash-flow models:
- Develop TCO calculators with monthly EMI, charging downtime, and battery warranty baked in.
- Include battery replacement cost or warranty coverage if the pack needs replacement earlier than expected.
- Incentivise EV use through workshop networks that offer annual/bi-annual battery health checks tied to the warranty.
4.2 Solve range and charging barriers
For passenger EVs:
- Improve highway charging reliability (redundant power, BESS, multiple CPO presence) so drivers trust highway stops.
- Create walk-up access: pay via UPI/cards; no mandatory app to plug in.
- Develop fast-charging packs or advanced chemistries (e.g., lithium-titanate) to cut charging time from 45 minutes to 10–15 minutes.
For commercial vehicles:
- Prioritise depot/closed-loop operations where vehicles run fixed routes and charge at base.
- Use fleet telematics to plan daily range and avoid overcharging/overheating batteries.
4.3 Solve commercial EV finance
Implement risk-sharing & cheaper capital:
- Launch government-backed credit guarantee funds to reduce APR from 20–25% to single digits.
- Create risk-sharing facilities where investors and OEMs share first-loss risk.
- Define standard finance products for e-buses and e-trucks (debt terms of 10+ years) with performance-linked interest adjustments.
4.4 Solve domestic supply chain fragility
India imports most of its cells and high-voltage wiring. Vijay advocates building domestic capacity for cathode materials, cell assembly, and high-voltage wiring. Meanwhile, he says to focus on quality and integration: ensure materials, thermal management, protection circuits, and EMI/EMC compliance.
4.5 Solve for data-driven capital confidence
Use three clean dials:
- Uptime: Aim for ≥95% for passenger + city fleets; ≥98% for highways.
- Utilisation: Publish hourly/day-part utilisation vs stock density; highlight downtime reasons.
- Hardware robustness: Independent verification on connector life, cooling, BMS, service TAT; match 10–15 year asset life.
With verified data, finance rates can drop, leasing becomes affordable, and investor confidence grows.
Critical data metrics: Track uptime (≥95% for city fleets), utilisation (hourly/day-part vs stock density), and hardware robustness (connector life, cooling, BMS, service TAT).
5) Advice for founders & policymakers
Practical next steps
For founders
- Understand use cases deeply: An EV must do both city and occasional highway runs or be specific to one — design accordingly.
- Pitch economics, not emotion: Show monthly cash-flow improvement vs petrol/diesel; highlight downtime costs and battery replacement budget.
- Integrate quality & safety: Use robust materials, high-quality connectors, and enforce EMI/EMC compliance; adopt open charging standards.
- Plan domestic supply chain: Work with local cell assemblers and component suppliers; invest in high-voltage wiring capacity.
- Be transparent: Share uptime, utilisation, failure codes, and health data with investors and lenders.
For policymakers & DISCOMs
- Remove price caps on incentives: Cover e-cargo, buses/trucks if they meet efficiency and localisation criteria.
- Standardise connectors & protocols: Mandate open standards for 3-wheelers, 4-wheelers, and buses.
- Support risk-sharing: Back credit guarantee funds to lower APRs; encourage performance-linked loans.
- Combine incentives with literacy: Tie subsidies to mandatory battery & safety workshops.
- Policy alignment: Harmonise central and state EV policies to avoid conflicting requirements.
6) The 2040 lens
A pragmatic vision for EVs & freight
Vijay’s 2040 markers aren’t about utopias; they are measured signals that India has “made it” in EV freight and passenger mobility:
- Refuel-like experience: EV charging on highways is as predictable and quick as buying diesel (≥200 kW fast-charging; BESS + grid redundancy; one card/app for all).
- On-demand power connections: Sites up to 1 MW follow clear 15–60 day SLA categories; DISCOM plans align with CPO projections.
- Real roaming: Cross-CPO roaming works like telecom — your tariff plan travels with you; chargers push live prices and health status to one public layer.
- Battery afterlife fully circular: Packs retire at ~80% health, get second life as stationary storage, and feed into domestic recycling loops.
- Data-literate decisions: Planners see grid/charging performance in real time; banks price loans based on measured reliability; investors fund scale based on actual throughput.
7) Governance ethos
Vijay’s leadership habits
- Patience with perseverance: Big infrastructure changes compound over years; avoid quarterly theatrics.
- Adaptive change: Don’t patch; upgrade your system when data demands it.
- People stewardship: Invest in training, fair wages, and safe work; governance quality is read through team treatment.
8) The ecosystem compact
Build one shared asset
Vijay urges the ecosystem to prioritise a single, industry-wide asset over thousands of small initiatives: a unified public dashboard. It should show stations, connectors, power classes, live status, uptime trends, prices, feeder constraints, planned outages, augmentation timelines, and land availability. If we build this, everyone wins: users trust the system, investors see performance, and planners allocate resources accurately.
9) Sector facts & signals
For your next brief
- EV adoption is still concentrated in metros: Tier-2/3 cities have limited chargers and fewer incentives.
- Freight is under-served: Goods vehicles contribute ~40% of transport emissions but get little attention; they also have long routes with limited fast-charging.
- Battery recycling & reuse: India lacks clear battery afterlife pathways; up to 80% state-of-health packs can serve as storage.
- Financing capital is hungry for data: NBFCs want live data to price risk; showing uptime/utilisation reduces APR by 5–7 percentage points.
10) Cheat-sheets & next actions
Practical next steps
For startups building EV networks
Model TCO with real battery replacement & downtime
Publish uptime & utilisation by site; tag failure causes
Choose sites based on feeder capacity & augmentation SLAs
Offer walk-up payments (UPI/cards); no app lock-ins
Collaborate on a public dashboard via ICPOA/BEE
Promote battery & safety literacy with RWAs & fleets
For investors & lenders
Ask for 90-day uptime & utilisation trends
Price loans on verified uptime, utilisation, hardware tests
Encourage performance-linked APR step-downs
Require open-data compliance (OCPP/OICP APIs)
Support risk-sharing facilities & credit guarantees
For startups building EV networks
Remove price ceilings on incentives; link to efficiency
Codify right-to-charge; enable walk-up payment
Publish feeder maps & upgrade timelines
Enforce yearly COP & service compliance
Promote battery reuse & recycling guidelines
11) Closing reflection
Closing reflection
Vijay Jaiswal proves that technical expertise without economic realism doesn’t move the needle. He brings both. By focusing on EV economics, freight decarbonisation, and the human realities of charging infrastructure, he maps a pragmatic route forward. Adoption is not inevitable; it requires discipline, honesty, and collaboration. Use his frameworks to build EV ecosystems that work—for users, investors, regulators, and the climate.
Sources & further reading
- Data points from conversation with Vijay Jaiswal (career, contributions)
- IEA – Global EV Outlook 2025 & India market data
- Press Information Bureau – public charger counts (Dec 2024, Apr 2025)
- India Briefing, Aleph INDIA – BIS 2024 EV safety standards & connector context
- IEEFA, Down To Earth, Times of India – reliability pain points & user experiences
- e-amrit (NITI Aayog) – charging connector convergence
- EVreporter – policy & sales momentum (Vahan data)